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By Brewer M. J.

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Diagnosis and treatment should follow careful consideration of the nature of the virus, the cost of treatment, and the distinction between the sensitivity of the test and the predictive value of a positive result. With respect to diagnosis and treatment, a test’s predictive value (with respect to a positive result) is more significant than the test’s overall accuracy. Consider what would happen if a medical laboratory used the highly unethical and illegal practice of declaring all test results negative, without actually testing the samples obtained.

The probability a patient will experience a particular side effect when taking a certain prescription medication is based on experimental data from clinical trials. Insurance companies use empirical probabilities as measures of risk for theft, accidents, injuries, and death. In some cases, when no experimental data is available, we may be forced to use a subjective probability, or hunch, as our best estimate of the true probability. What is the probability a previously untried medical procedure will be successful?

Andrei Nikolaevich Kolmogorov was born in Tambov, Russia, in 1903 to unmarried parents. His mother died giving birth to Andrei and his father, exiled for a time, died when Andrei was 16. ) Young Andrei was raised by his aunt, Vera Yakovlena, who adopted him in 1910. In 1920, Kolmogorov entered Moscow State University studying metallurgy, Russian history, and mathematics. Even as an undergraduate, Kolmogorov made a reputation for himself doing mathematical research and producing results in set theory and Fourier series.